From a policy perspective, public opinion in Nemuro indicates a potential avenue for compromise in Tokyo’s negotiating strategy, although pressure for change is unlikely to emerge from the bureaucratized NTRM. Theoretically, this paper is congruent with politico-institutional arguments emphasizing the impact of the regulatory regime in shaping civil society organizations. This disjuncture has both theoretical and policy implications. There are signs of an emerging disjuncture between national policy and local aspirations. However, as a result of demographic and socioeconomic changes, dissent is slowly emerging in Nemuro. Local opposition to the government’s four island en bloc policy existed in some quarters but was largely kept in check by state largesse. The NTRM began in this northern periphery as a movement of divergent attitudes but was soon coopted by the Japanese government for political reasons. This article sheds light on a relatively unexplored aspect of theNorthern Territories dispute by examining the views of residents in Nemuro – the symbolic frontline in Japan’s Northern Territories Reversion Movement (NTRM).
Professionals in Security and Foreign Policy will find this analysis enlightening, as will academics and their students. Specifically, calculations that various Russian regimes have made need to be interpreted broadly since threats and benefits can take various forms. Russia has a rich history of territorial disputes and the results of this qualitative research show that Fravel’s approach can explain most of Russia’s cases, but the explanatory power could be increased by changing certain premises of his theory. In this study, Russian territorial disputes are looked at using the theory of omnibalancing and the theory of preventive warfare, theories which have already been applied by Taylor Fravel in his successful analysis of the Chinese territorial disputes. Strategy is carefully calculated, especially for essential state elements, such as territory. States can choose to cooperate, delay or escalate their territorial disputes, but there is a lack of understanding of strategy behind each choice.
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